Civil aviation looked like a promising place to inflict maximum pain, but the West’s harsh restrictions have not and clearly will not lead to a complete halt in air traffic with Russia, Bloomberg writes. Although the security situation will worsen.
Russian airlines have cancelled flights to the US, Europe and other unfriendly countries. But increased the number of flights to Thailand, Turkey, UAE, and former Soviet republics (Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, etc.). They have about 1,100 domestic flights a day, down about 15% from a year ago. The decline is much more marginal than those who imposed the sanctions expected.
The remaining imported planes in Russia continue to fly actively, the aircraft manufacturers agree. Although they are cut off from software updates and maintenance, as well as official supplies of spare parts — they now have to buy them through friendly countries.
Iran’s experience shows that undocumented maintenance is not sustainable in the long run, Bloomberg colleagues note. Decades of sanctions have left the country with outdated aircraft and a dismal safety record. Russia’s situation is more difficult because its airlines largely fly new models, adds aviation consultant John Strickland.
«Unlike Iran, Russia is home to a proud tradition of aircraft engineering dating back to the early Soviet era. The flagship carrier, Aeroflot, was once the largest airline in the world, and manufacturers such as Tupolev, Ilyushin and Sukhoi built airliners capable of carrying hundreds of passengers,» the publication reports, adding that today Russia produces more modern aircraft such as the Superjet. It depends heavily on Western components, but a project to import substitute them is now underway.
Another goal of the sanctions was to isolate Russia, but this also had mixed results. Russian airspace is now closed to Western European and U.S. carriers, forcing their planes to take long and expensive detours on flights to Asia.
According to Cirium, Russian airports now handle about 270 international flights a day compared to 300 a year ago. The difference is not too big.